Restoring Lost Deterrence: Pager Explosions in Lebanon

In a well-coordinated assault targeting Lebanon’s southern suburbs—an area known for being a Hezbollah stronghold—and specific regions in Syria, hundreds of pager devices used by Lebanese Hezbollah members were detonated simultaneously. Early reports, at the time of writing, suggest the attack claimed the lives of over a dozen individuals and left thousands more injured.   Israel has a long-established record of carrying out extrajudicial operations, ranging from targeted assassinations to sophisticated cyber-attacks aimed at its adversaries. A hallmark of its tactics includes booby-trapping communications devices, as seen in the 1996 assassination of Yahya Ayyash, a prominent Hamas bomb maker, who was killed using a bomb concealed within his mobile phone. Given this precedent, it is plausible that Israeli intelligence, specifically the Mossad, orchestrated the recent operation by infiltrating the manufacturing process of these pager devices, possibly embedding lithium-ion batteries rigged with meticulously calibrated explosives.   The operation raises many questions about the strength of the security of Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure, which calls for looking at the incident from a deeper perspective to decipher its meanings and implications from the perspective of the communications security used by Hezbollah or other resistance groups in the region or even regular armies in the Middle East.

In May 2024, The Institute of International Economic Relations (IDOS) organised a workshop on Security and Stability in the Mediterranean. The workshop focused on critical issues of security and stability in the Mediterranean, which continue to dominate regional and international agendas. Topics included the conflict between Israel and Hamas, tensions in the Greater Middle East, recent developments in Turkey and Iran, ongoing violence in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, as well as the migration and refugee crises. Additionally, the role of global powers such as the United States, Russia, and China was examined. The Mediterranean region, remains a crucial area for the future of the European Union's relationship with Mediterranean and Middle Eastern countries. The workshop's objective was to discuss and analyse ongoing political conflicts in the Euro-Mediterranean region and explore possible ways to achieve peace and stability.   In this workshop, AHRC researcher Habiba Diaaeldin presented a paper on European policies, the rise of the far right, and their impact on migration, geopolitics, and the humanitarian situation in the Mediterranean. The paper aimed to evaluate European migration policies, specifically the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, using "policy success" criteria developed for this purpose. These criteria include assessments based on values, economic cost, objective attainment, and political cost.   Throughout the three-day workshop, participants engaged in discussions on various topics related to the workshop’s main theme.