Lebanon: A Pattern of Escalation in the Middle East

The latest wave of escalations in Lebanon is not a coincidence but part of a broader pattern of escalation. The U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen were quickly followed by the collapse of the ceasefire in Gaza, and now, as anticipated, a rocket fire from Lebanon has provided Israel with the justification to escalate further. This strongly suggests that Israel is laying the groundwork for a wider regional conflict.   This escalation is not only shaped by international dynamics but also by internal Israeli politics. Netanyahu's government, under pressure from far-right factions, is actively pushing for expanded military action. The reappointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir as police minister is not an isolated decision but a signal that Israel is preparing for prolonged conflict. With these developments unfolding in quick succession, it is becoming clear that unless a major concession is reached, the region is heading toward another cycle of war.

The recent local elections in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia signal a significant extension of the influence of extremist movements, particularly far-right factions, across the European political landscape. This development underscores the resurgence of nationalism, challenging the liberal trends that have dominated the continent since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War. If replicated across other regions, the election outcomes in these two states could have profound repercussions for Germany’s political and economic future, especially for the ruling coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The key results and their potential implications are outlined below: