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The Paris 2024 Olympics edition is undoubtedly unique. While the Olympics have always been political, this time they are taking place amid significant uncertainty and instability in the host country, as well as on a global stage already heated by two ongoing wars which makes it a particularly distinctive Olympics. This highly anticipated event is expected to be leveraged by President Emmanuel Macron as he seeks to restore some of his lost prestige following his party's defeat in the snap elections he called for. Nevertheless, France is likely to encounter numerous internal and external challenges leaving political events overshadowing athletic performances.
Macron’s Headache
France has been experiencing a period of instability following the recent parliamentary elections, where the right won the most votes but the left secured the most seats. This outcome has left President Macron facing more confusion than he intended to resolve by calling for snap elections. Macron surprised his own party by calling for the snap elections after suffering a significant defeat to the far-right, which ran on an anti-Macron platform, in the June European elections. Consequently, his coalition experienced a second loss in the parliamentary elections, losing numerous seats. Tensions have been at an all-time high in recent weeks, with no single party or coalition able to secure a majority in parliament to form a government. While no one can deny Macron’s skills in giving speeches, Macron now is in an unenviable position in which he is tasked with addressing the world during a period of weakness, without a prime minister by his side and leading a caretaker government that is aware of its limited time in power.
Nevertheless, Macron will try to capitalize on this moment. The Paris Olympics present a unique opportunity to turn the page on his troubles and regain some political momentum. Hosting the Games has been a top priority for Macron since the start of his presidency. Less than two months after taking office in 2017, he attended an International Olympic Committee event in Lausanne, Switzerland, lobbying for the 2024 edition to be awarded to Paris. Thanks to a special bill introduced by Macron’s government in 2018, which adopted regulations for the construction of Olympic facilities, more than 80 buildings in the Olympic Village were completed at a rapid pace earlier this year. Macron considers hosting the Olympics as a political victory which should be utilized.
However, the weeks leading up to the inauguration have proved more challenging for the French president. It was anticipated that the French capital would experience some level of chaos, attacks, or disruptions, which has been reflected in the lower number of tourists arriving in Paris. Other intervening factors include skyrocketing hotel prices and Parisians’ reputation for being “rude” to tourists, but the expected chaos is a significant concern for tourists. Just days before the Olympics, two 18-year-olds were arrested on charges of preparing one or more terrorist attacks, according to France’s National Terrorism Prosecution Office. Additionally, hours before the opening ceremony, French high-speed railways were attacked in what Prime Minister Gabriel Attal described as “acts of sabotage.”
These acts cannot be separated from the political situation in France or the broader global context. Just as the 2015 Bataclan attacks were viewed in light of the rise in global terrorism, particularly Islamic jihadi terrorism, this year’s attacks should also be seen through a similar lens. The high-speed railway attacks were initially suspected to be the work of Moscow, but French security services and railway authorities have ruled this out. It has been discovered that the methods used were identical to those employed in previous sabotage attempts by far-left groups. Furthermore, French railway authorities noted that the attacks required detailed knowledge of the railway infrastructure. Meanwhile, Israel has pointed fingers at Iran, its primary adversary in the Middle East. “The sabotage of railway infrastructure across France ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics was planned and executed under the influence of Iran’s axis of evil and radical Islam,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Consequently, the overall situation in France reflects global and domestic political instability, which is being reflected on the Olympic Games.
Plus Mal?
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have consistently demonized Moscow, promoting the notion of Russia as a global pariah. With a European leader hosting this year’s Olympics, many expected Russians to be barred from participating. However, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) rules allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete, provided they do not actively support the war or work for their country’s military or national security apparatuses. Despite these rules, a recent investigation found that 33 of the 57 Russian and Belarusian athletes declared eligible had, in fact, backed the war in Ukraine. The controversy extends beyond the athletes themselves, as many have expressed anger over the presence of two Russians as members of the IOC. The Israel-Hamas conflict has added another layer of disagreement, further politicizing the Olympics. For instance, days before the Games began, Adidas had to halt its campaign following criticism from Israelis over Bella Hadid’s involvement in promoting the retro SL72 trainers. Israelis found it “offensive” to have a Palestinian model wearing a shoe first launched to mark the 1972 Munich Olympics, where 11 Israelis were killed by a Palestinian group. Meanwhile, while the IOC has clearly stated its position on banning Russian and Belarusian athletes who support the war from competing, it has remained silent on the matter of Israeli athletes, leading many to question the inconsistency in the IOC’s stance.
While concerns over Russian and Israeli participation might seem significant, Paris could face additional headache related to security and AI surveillance in the aftermath of the Olympics. In response to security threats, France has announced plans to use AI surveillance systems. meanwhile, with the European Union (EU) recently publishing its AI rulebook, France could face scrutiny and potential legal issues from its European neighbours. The EU AI Act generally prohibits real-time remote biometric identification in public spaces. Additionally, surveillance systems used during the Olympics would likely fall into the high-risk category; these systems must comply with strict requirements, including risk management, data governance, transparency, human oversight, and robust cybersecurity measures. France will need to ensure that all AI systems used for surveillance adhere to these regulations to avoid penalties. The Act also allows individuals to lodge complaints and seek explanations for AI-driven decisions. France must implement protections to address any potential misuse of AI surveillance, or it could face significant issues from the EU.
Overall, the Paris Olympics appear to be increasingly politicized, more so than one might expect. The internal situation in France is inevitably affecting such a major global event, as politicians often seek to leverage these occasions. For President Macron, the Olympics could represent a final opportunity to bolster his political image following a series of setbacks. However, the collection of challenges on both the international and European stages may constrain his ability to fully capitalize on this opportunity.
References
Barbero, Michele. “Will the 2024 Paris Olympics Impact the Political Legacies of Macron, Hidalgo?” Foreign Policy, 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/11/paris-olympics-macron-hidalgo-snap-elections-politics-seine/
Caulcutt, Clea. “Macron Hopes Glitzy Olympics Can Deliver Political Breather.” POLITICO, July 26, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-paris-2024-olympics-elections-politics-fortune-games-world-sports/
Corbet, Sylvie. “Macron Aims to Sidestep Political Concerns and Regain Prestige with the Paris Olympics.” AP News, July 25, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/olympics-2024-paris-macron-politics-0b188022db15da870b3f52a3e33f401f
Kirby, Lipika Pelham and Paul. “French High-Speed Rail ‘sabotaged’ before Olympic Ceremony.” BBC News, July 26, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv2gd9pqwlxo
Kovalova, Inna. “‘guardian of the Olympic Games’ Ignores Dossier Showing over Two Thirds of Russian Athletes Set to Compete at Paris Olympics Have Violated Participating Ukraine War Neutrality Rules.” Global Rights Compliance, July 22, 2024. https://globalrightscompliance.com/2024/07/18/guardian-of-the-olympic-games-ignores-dossier-showing-over-two-thirds-of-russian-athletes-set-to-compete-at-paris-olympics-have-violated-participating-ukraine-war-neutrality-rules/
Rahman, Mujtaba. “X.Com.” X (formerly Twitter), 2024. https://x.com/mij_europe/status/1816825795848945855?s=48&t=By0V-zKMzOOqj8jPSkCBHg
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Iran’s Presidential Election: Intense Competition and High Stakes
Iranians are voting in a snap presidential election on June 28, following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. This situation is not unprecedented for the Iranian regime, which has faced similar scenarios. In 1981, Iran’s first president following the Islamic Revolution Abolhassan Banisadr, was removed from office by the Islamic Consultative Assembly for political incompetence. Later that year, his successor, President Mohammad-Ali Rajai, was killed in a suitcase bombing. Thus, the current political and constitutional vacuum is not new to Iran. This pattern of instability has occurred twice before during significant periods of political upheaval.
Ebrahim Raisi was one of the few figures who enjoyed the trust of the security establishment and the regime's cleric guards. He was expected to oversee the rise of a new supreme leader after the death of Ali Khamenei or perhaps become the supreme leader himself. Therefore, Raisi's death poses a significant challenge to the mullahs' regime, especially given the internal and external challenges that Iran has faced recently.
On the other hand, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei paved the way for the presidential elections by selecting only six candidates who passed the examination conducted by the Guardian Council. This council, comprising 12 clerics appointed by the Supreme Leader, nominated by the judiciary chief, and approved by parliament, filtered the candidates based on loose criteria that it interprets and explains. Out of 80 candidates who applied for the position, only these six were allowed to run, with the Guardian Council having the final say in choosing or excluding candidates.
For instance, while the Iranian Constitution does not explicitly bar women from running for president, the Guardian Council effectively prevents them from doing so. Despite four women registering candidacies in the current and past 13 presidential elections, none have been approved.
Article 115 of Iran’s Constitution requires the president to be “a politician and cleric of Iranian origin, an Iranian citizen, a director and a wise man, who enjoys a good reputation, honesty, and piety, and believes in the foundations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the official religion of the country.” Additionally, criteria related to administrative capabilities are considered. Beyond these criteria, it is widely believed that Khamenei favours a loyal and conservative president who aligns with his views and adheres to the principles of the regime, including obedience to the Supreme Leader.
Therefore, this analysis aims to clarify the significance of these elections, the management process, and the priorities that voters and the regime seek in the next president.
Programmes
11 Jun 2024
Migrants Not Welcome: The UK’s Safety of Rwanda Bill
This article was originally published on Ahram Online on June 11, 2024.
In April 2022, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda under the newly enacted "Safety of Rwanda Bill." This bill generated significant controversy and was described as incompatible with the U.K.'s legal obligations. Both the British Supreme Court and the European Court of Human Rights ruled that the bill violated legal obligations and was incompatible with international conventions to which the U.K. is a signatory. In June 2022, the first flight carrying asylum seekers from the U.K. to Rwanda was cancelled minutes before take-off after the European Court of Human Rights issued last-minute commands to stop it. Two years later, with a new Prime Minister in office and despite international legal pressure, Parliament has finally passed the bill. However, the controversy has not ended. The high economic costs and concerns over human rights continue to render the Safety of Rwanda Bill contentious and problematic.
Programmes
27 May 2024
Migration: An Everlasting Variable in European Politics?
This June, citizens of the European Union will head to the ballot boxes for the highly anticipated parliamentary elections. Migration has always been a significant issue for both voters and candidates. However, several commentators, citing opinion polls, argue that migration may no longer be a top concern, overshadowed by issues such as economic turmoil, COVID-19, and climate change. Despite this, further analysis suggests that migration continues to be an important issue. While respondents might not explicitly mention migration when asked about their concerns, it remains significant, as evidenced by the attitudes of candidates and their emphasis on the topic. This underscores the continuing importance of migration in the upcoming elections and its significance to the results.
Programmes
22 May 2024
ASEAN’s Lessons: A Blueprint for Peace in the Middle East
This article was originally published on Ahram Online on May 21, 2024.
Southeast Asia's history, marred by prolonged conflicts since the 1950s, offers pertinent lessons for strife-torn regions seeking stability. The spectre of the Cold War transformed countries like Vietnam into battlegrounds for over two decades, pitting communist and capitalist ideologies in a gruelling contest. Laos, too, bore the scars of proxy warfare, enduring a protracted struggle between the communist Pathet Lao forces, backed by a sizable contingent of North Vietnamese troops of Laotian descent, and the royal government, in a conflict that spanned more than two decades.
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