Are We Waving Goodbye to Macron?

France's political crisis is moving toward uncharted territory. Since June, President Emmanuel Macron has thrown the nation into turmoil by calling for snap elections. This decision set off a cascade of crises, culminating in the resignation of Michel Barnier, the shortest-serving prime minister in France’s modern history. The fallout isn’t confined to France alone; its ripple effects are being felt across the European continent. Considered the culprit of all this, the question looms: will Macron soon be ousted?

Long story short, the chaos in France began when President Macron called for snap election, a move driven by his panic over the far-right’s significant success in the European elections. Hoping to stabilize his fragile coalition, Macron’s decision backfired, plunging the country into deeper turmoil. The result was an even more fragmented parliament and months of political deadlock, ultimately bringing in a prime minister who served for only three months.
 
Barnier’s swift downfall occurred after he proposed a budget for the coming year featuring drastic spending cuts and tax hikes aimed at reducing the deficit, which has soared to 6.1% of France’s GDP—far exceeding the target of 5%. His budget plans drew criticism from all sides of the political spectrum. The left accused him of imposing austerity, while Macron’s centrists and Marine Le Pen’s far-right condemned him for increasing taxes. Ultimately, Barnier’s government collapsed under the weight of a no-confidence vote.
 
It is clear that Macron bears much of the blame for France’s political crisis. His miscalculations have not only led to the collapse of the government but could ultimately threaten his own position. Despite this, Macron appears determined to hold on to power. Just days after the government’s downfall, during the reopening of Notre-Dame, he focused on bolstering his political prestige. In a bid to achieve a diplomatic milestone, Macron hosted the first in-person meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump since the latter’s November election victory.

The arguably handsome president could be ousted from office soon. While many observers believe that Macron does not deserve such an end for his political career, far-right leader Marine Le Pen has already vowed to dismantle any government he forms. Her strategy aims to pressure Macron into resigning, thereby sparing the country from ongoing political turmoil. However, Macron is expected to show greater resilience than Le Pen anticipates. Following the collapse of the Barnier government, he delivered a 10-minute national address, firmly rejecting calls from the opposition to step down and pledging to serve his full term until 2027. Macron will now need to follow the rules of the constitution to get himself out of the difficult situation he is in. Under the French Constitution, the National Assembly cannot be dissolved before July 2025, meaning the country’s political situation will stay uncertain until then. For now, Barnier will stay on as caretaker until Macron chooses a new prime minister with support from a new coalition. This could take days, weeks, or even months because forming coalitions in France is often hard, as political parties usually focus on sectarian issues.
 
What options does Macron have before next summer? The short answer is, a lot of uncertainty. However, the longer answer boils down to three likely scenarios. First, Macron could attempt to build a new majority to back his centrist MPs and political plans. To achieve this, he would need to gain support from both the conservative right and the centre-left, possibly offering the role of prime minister to one of them as a bargaining tool. This scenario seems to be the nearest right now after socialist leader Olivier Faure showed his preparedness for a discussion with Macron.
 
The second possibility is a left-wing majority government. While the New Popular Front has the most MPs in the National Assembly, it still doesn’t have enough for a majority. To lead the government, it would need to secure additional MPs from the centre. However, such a government would face the same challenges that brought down Barnier’s administration. The final option for Macron is to reappoint Barnier as prime minister. This would require Barnier to propose a new budget with compromises to win support from both the far-right and far-left.
 
Does this mean Macron is safe from being removed from office? Not necessarily. Even the options available to him are unlikely to provide the stability France needs before July 2025, when he can call for parliamentary elections. While the French Constitution grants the president significant powers during crises—including the ability to call referendums or invoke the sweeping emergency powers outlined in Article 16—these measures were designed for wartime and are rarely used. It is unlikely that Macron would resort to such extreme actions, as doing so would only provoke stronger resistance from both the opposition and the broader public. As a result, the possibility of Macron leaving office before his term ends in 2027 remains on the table.
 
Regarding the budget, France is projected to face a deficit of up to 6.6% of GDP in 2025—more than double the European Union’s (EU) benchmark of 3%. Despite this, the country will avoid an American-style government shutdown, as France operates differently, continuing to use the 2024 budget until a new government is formed. However, as an EU member, France is expected to keep its annual budget deficit below 3%. With the current deficit exceeding 5%, any incoming government will face significant pressure to reduce it, especially as it has ballooned in the wake of the pandemic.

What is happening in France, regrettably, cannot be confined within its borders. France is the second largest economy in the eurozone after Germany and the strongest military power in Europe along with the UK. This means that whatever political or economic turmoil takes place, its consequences will definitely revibrate across the whole continent.
 
The turmoil in France comes at a critical moment when Europe urgently needs strong leadership from its two key players, France and Germany, the latter also grappling with internal political challenges. European governments worry that prolonged political and economic instability in the EU’s second-largest member state will weaken the bloc’s ability to project unity and leadership, especially amid heightened security threats posed by Russia and incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
 
Additionally, substantial funding is required for European defence and support for Ukraine, but France’s financial constraints pose significant challenges. If the country’s 2024 budget is extended into 2025 without adjustments, the planned 33.3 billion euros increase for defence spending could be delayed or even cancelled. French bilateral aid to Ukraine will also face additional obstacles; even in 2024, France fell short of its 3 billion euros commitment in military support. The possibility of early elections, with Le Pen positioned as the frontrunner for the presidency, raises serious concerns about France’s dedication to Ukraine and the EU. Even before such a scenario, the growing influence of Le Pen’s National Rally party in French politics is already shaping debates on key issues like migration, defence, and aid to Ukraine. This influence was painfully evident during the budget debates, which ultimately led to the collapse of the French government.
 
Finally, French politics has become increasingly unpredictable, making it difficult to determine whether President Emmanuel Macron will complete his term in 2027 or face an early exit. What is evident, however, is that regardless of the outcome, stability is unlikely to return at least before June 2025. Notably, the far-right has been the primary beneficiary of Macron’s recent political gambit. While it has yet to secure a parliamentary majority, it holds a pivotal “kingmaker” role in French politics. It seems only a matter of time before the far-right potentially achieves a parliamentary majority by 2025 or even claims the presidency in 2027. Nevertheless, the ramifications on the European continent should not be overlooked.

BBC. “Explained: What to Expect in France’s Political and Budget Crisis.” BreakingNews.ie, December 4, 2024. https://www.breakingnews.ie/explained/explainer-what-to-expect-in-frances-political-and-budget-crisis-1704010.html
 
Fathi, Romain. “France’s Government Has Fallen and Political Chaos Has Returned. Here Are 3 Scenarios for What Could Happen Next.” The Conversation, December 7, 2024. https://theconversation.com/frances-government-has-fallen-and-political-chaos-has-returned-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-could-happen-next-245277
 
Goury-Laffont, Victor. “After Trump Was Late, Zelenskyy-Macron Trilateral Was All Smiles and Handshakes.” POLITICO, December 8, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-donald-trump-emmanuel-macron-hold-first-post-reelection-talks-at-hosted-trilateral-meeting/
 
Howard, Jacqueline. “French President Emmanuel Macron Vows to Name New PM within Days.” BBC News, December 5, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdd60rzl702o
 
Caulcutt, Clea. “French Socialist Leader Extends Olive Branch to Macron as Talks on next Government Begin.” POLITICO, December 6, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/france-socialist-leader-olivier-faure-holds-olive-branch-emmanuel-macron/