Political Consequences of Germany’s Local Election

More than three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany’s political divide between East and West persists, casting a long shadow over national unity. In the eastern regions, political tensions have heightened, culminating in a pivotal moment during the Sept. 1, 2024, local elections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a historic win, achieving 33% of the votes in Thuringia, making it the strongest party in the state. In Saxony, it placed second with 30%, trailing only the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Despite repeated warnings labelling the AfD as extremist and even Nazi-aligned, it has exploited the disenfranchisement in the East, filling the political void left by the ruling coalition. Its local success forms part of a broader strategy aimed at normalising its extremist rhetoric as it eyes a climb to national prominence. The potential consequences of the AfD's rise to national prominence are significant, reshaping Germany’s political landscape in ways that could have far-reaching implications.

Germany’s local elections, held every five years, are crucial in shaping regional governance and national legislative processes. The country’s 16 federal states each have parliaments and executive leaderships. Still, they collectively contribute to the Bundesrat—Germany’s second legislative chamber, which holds the power to veto federal laws. Based on the 2024 local election results, the ruling coalition, composed of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), faces the risk of marginalization, barely scraping past the 5% electoral threshold. In contrast, the CDU has garnered substantial support at 30%, while the AfD surged at 32% in some regions. The left-wing populist bloc led by Sahra Wagenknecht also secured 15% of the vote, underscoring a growing divide between mainstream political forces and populist factions. The shift toward extremism in the East highlights a crisis of confidence in the established political order.

The importance of these elections extends beyond Thuringia and Saxony. They serve as a referendum on the ruling coalition’s performance, particularly as Germany approaches its federal elections next year. The rise of both far-right and far-left populists signals public discontent with the government’s policies, creating an increasingly volatile political environment.

The populist critique to the coalition government is multifaceted, targeting immigration, economic management, and military support for Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration has negotiated a preliminary 2025 budget after protracted discussions, yet sharp disagreements linger, particularly regarding Ukraine’s military aid level. While struggling to contain its overall budget, the German government has capped its 2024 Ukraine aid package at €8 billion, with additional funds of €4 billion planned for 2025 and €3 billion for 2026.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and others advocating for more significant assistance are pressing for an extra €3.8 billion in 2024 to fund military supplies. Still, Finance Minister Christian Lindner has firmly rejected the proposal. Lindner argues that additional funding should be sourced from international mechanisms such as the G7 and European Union’s proposed support instruments, which won’t be operational until 2025. Meanwhile, Scholz’s decision to allow Ukraine to use German weaponry against Russian targets has stirred controversy within his party, fuelling security concerns ahead of the national elections.

The migration issue, further exacerbated by a recent terrorist attack in Solingen, has also become a flashpoint. A 26-year-old Syrian linked to the Islamic State fatally stabbed three people and injured eight others, reigniting debates over deportation policies. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU has called for stricter deportation laws and a total ban on refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. Scholz, however, opposes such drastic measures, leaving an opening for populists to capitalise on public fear. The AfD’s election strategy leveraged both the Ukraine conflict and migration debates, calling for immediate peace negotiations and an end to arms deliveries.

Germany has emerged as the world’s second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, following the United States’ decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv in early 2023 which marked a significant escalation, one that the AfD has condemned as leading Germany toward “World War III.” Many Germans share this fear; an August 2024 INSA poll found that 45% of respondents expressed concern over an escalation of the war, rising to 55% in East Germany, where memories of the Cold War still run deep.

The AfD and its sympathisers have been vocal opponents of the German government’s involvement in Ukraine. During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Berlin, the AfD and the German Workers’ Party boycotted his address to the Bundestag. The growing populist opposition could disrupt Germany’s role as a leading backer of Ukraine, particularly as pro-Russian sentiment gains momentum in the political fringes.

The AfD’s connections to Russia are well-documented, and the party has long pursued closer ties with Moscow. Like other far-right movements across Europe, the AfD criticised its government’s support for Ukraine even before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. Key party figures, such as Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, have visited Russia, including high-profile events like the 2023 Victory Day reception at the Russian embassy.

In Thuringia, the AfD ran its local campaign under the slogan “Diplomacy instead of weapons,” a direct challenge to Germany’s prominent role in arming Ukraine. The party’s consistent narrative pushes for reconciliation with Russia and opposes further military escalation. Such rhetoric, coupled with the AfD’s local election successes, raises concerns that its continued rise could extend to the federal level, threatening to reshape Germany’s democratic framework.

Critics draw disturbing historical parallels between the AfD’s rise and that of the National Socialist German Workers’ Party under Adolf Hitler. In 1929, the Nazi party entered the Thuringian government, marking its first step toward national dominance. The fear is that a similar trajectory could unfold if the AfD strengthens its grip on local and federal politics. This populist surge could destabilise Germany’s democratic institutions, much as far-right parties have done across Europe and beyond.

With its expanding electoral base, the AfD poses a significant challenge to Germany’s future political stability as the country balances its role in European leadership and its internal democratic health.