Written By
Dr. Mohamed Shadi
Dr. Mohamed Shadi

The recent local elections in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia signal a significant extension of the influence of extremist movements, particularly far-right factions, across the European political landscape. This development underscores the resurgence of nationalism, challenging the liberal trends that have dominated the continent since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War. If replicated across other regions, the election outcomes in these two states could have profound repercussions for Germany’s political and economic future, especially for the ruling coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The key results and their potential implications are outlined below:

Ascendancy of the Alternative for Germany (AfD): The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved historic victories, emerging as the largest party in the Thuringia state parliament with 32.8% of the vote and securing a close second place in Saxony with 30.8%. This marks a substantial shift away from liberal politics, as it is the first instance since World War II that a right-wing populist party has won a state-level election in Germany.

 

Underperformance of the Ruling Coalition: The ruling coalition, comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP), experienced significant losses, with their combined vote share falling below 15% in both states. Notably, the Greens and the FDP failed to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation, signalling a waning of public support for the federal government.

 

National Election Barometer: The elections in Saxony and Thuringia are being viewed as a barometer of the national sentiment. Political analysts suggest that these results could signal similar outcomes in upcoming state elections, including in Brandenburg, where the AfD currently leads in the polls.

 

Widespread Dissatisfaction with the Federal Government: The election results reflect deep-seated dissatisfaction with the federal government, with approximately 76% of voters in these states expressing disapproval of Chancellor Scholz’s administration. This discontent is primarily attributed to perceptions of inefficiency and persistent internal conflicts within the coalition, prompting calls to reassess the government’s policies and strategies.

 

The figure below illustrates the election results in the two states:

 

 

The following part highlights the potential implications of the recent election results in Saxony and Thuringia on Germany’s broader economic trends, particularly concerning aid to Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia:

Weakening of the Ruling Coalition: The ruling coalition’s (SPD, Greens, FDP) weakened position, should similar election outcomes be replicated in other states, will likely impede its ability to secure robust funding for Ukraine. The rise of the AfD reflects a significant shift in public sentiment, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict, which could lead to heightened scrutiny and increased opposition to foreign aid. This shift will be particularly pronounced if the AfD gains greater influence in future legislative elections.

Re-Prioritization of Budget Allocations: Faced with internal pressures and potential demands for fiscal consolidation, the coalition may be forced to re-prioritize budgetary allocations, placing domestic concerns ahead of international commitments. This scenario would result in reduced financial support for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, especially if coalition partners struggle to reach a consensus on budgetary matters.
The AfD’s staunch opposition to continued military aid for Ukraine further reinforces these expectations. From the onset of the conflict, the AfD has consistently advocated for an end to German military aid, favouring peace negotiations over prolonged support for Ukraine. The party has openly criticised the German government’s military assistance to Ukraine, arguing that it exacerbates the conflict. For instance, AfD leaders have warned that sending weapons to Ukraine risks further escalation, with party leader Alice Weidel even suggesting that such actions could lead to a “Third World War.”
The AfD has leveraged its anti-military aid stance as a central theme in its campaign strategy. It resonated strongly with voters in eastern Germany, where concerns about the repercussions of involvement in the Ukrainian conflict are particularly acute. Party officials have frequently argued that the German government’s support for Ukraine has been excessive at the expense of national interests. This message has found traction in the recent state elections.
The legislative voting records underscore the AfD’s consistent and robust opposition to military aid for Ukraine. Most AfD members have voted against all measures proposed by the ruling coalition in this regard. For instance, during the vote on sending heavy weapons to Ukraine at the onset of the War, 66 out of 100 opposing votes came from AfD members, illustrating the party’s unified stance against what they perceived as a military intervention.
Furthermore, it is essential to consider the broader context of these developments. The results come from intense internal conflicts within the ruling coalition regarding the “Emergency Borrowing Law” governed by Article 115 of the German Constitution, commonly known as the “debt brake.” This law restricts new borrowing to 0.35% of GDP, except in cases of natural disasters or extraordinary emergencies beyond the government’s control that severely impact the state’s financial capacity. The coalition had previously activated this rule during the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and extended it through 2024 to address the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War. This activation increased public debt from €2 trillion in 2019 to €2.62 trillion in 2023.
The dispute over the continued use of the “debt brake” led to a contentious debate within the ruling alliance, ultimately culminating in a federal court decision. The court ruled against reactivating the emergency borrowing provision, compelling the coalition to curtail its spending, particularly in foreign policy areas, including aid to Ukraine, for the current fiscal year.

These shifts in aid allocation at the national level suggest the potential for significant changes in financing trends across Europe. The situation could be further complicated by the possible return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to power, which might dramatically alter the trajectory of the conflict on both the Russian and Ukrainian fronts.

Al Habtoor Research Centre’s Commentary articles allow researchers to provide quick, informed responses to ongoing topics, emphasizing personal perspectives and expert opinions without the weight of exhaustive citations. This ensures agility in addressing rapidly evolving subjects and enriches the discourse with authentic insights.

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