15 Sep 2026

The Cost of Transformation: State, Economy, and Society in Trump’s Second Term

The US economy experienced a rapid macroeconomic shift marked by rising prices and slowing growth following the implementation of a 27% weighted average applied tariff rate. This policy shift triggere...
14 Sep 2026

Shadow Leverage Issue 4: Iran’s Nuclear Programme

The Memorandum of Understanding did not constitute a comprehensive or definitive settlement of the nuclear issue. Rather, it served as a temporary truce to freeze military strikes and maritime and nuc...
11 Sep 2026

Are Ports More Important Than Capitals?

While political capitals retain legal and sovereign authority, seaports have emerged as the “functional capitals” of the modern state. These maritime nodes are where sovereign decisions ar...
10 Sep 2026

Orbital Data Centres and the Limits of National Jurisdiction over Technology Firms

The largest technology firms are moving their data centres into low Earth orbit, having pushed terrestrial infrastructure to the physical and environmental limits of what it can supply in power, cooli...
10 Sep 2026

The Promise of Prosperity for All: Deconstructing Elon Musk’s Vision of the Future of AI and Humanity

Elon Musk’s promises about the future of artificial intelligence derive much of their appeal from offering a single answer to a range of human problems: poverty, arduous work, the cost of living...

Programmes

Europe’s Next Battle: The Coming Food Crisis

8 Sep 2026
The last few years in European history can be described as “one battle after another”. From the start of the Russia-Ukraine war to the return of U.S. President Donald Trump for a second term and all of the headache that followed, Europe has found itself dealing with one challenge after another. Now, after years of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, Europe may be heading towards another battle, one that could hit much closer to home: food. The continent is facing the prospect of a food shortage, and the problem has already begun to take shape.   The reasons behind it span from extreme heatwaves that are having a negative impact on crops and agriculture at large, to war-related disruptions that are affecting key trade routes and food supplies. While all of the above is already bad news for Europe, the worse possibility is that the problem might not stop at European doors and could extend into a global food crisis. Accordingly, what comes next for Europe, and can Europeans secure enough food for their people?

Orbital Data Centres and the Limits of National Jurisdiction over Technology Firms

10 Sep 2026
The largest technology firms are moving their data centres into low Earth orbit, having pushed terrestrial infrastructure to the physical and environmental limits of what it can supply in power, cooling and land to an artificial intelligence sector whose demands keep compounding. SpaceX has set the fourth quarter of 2027 for the launch of its first generation of computing satellites, targeting one gigawatt of orbital data centre power capacity in that same year and one hundred gigawatts by 2030. The scale of the pressure behind that schedule is visible in the wider market, where global data centre demand is estimated to require investment approaching €5.7 trillion before the decade closes.   What presents itself as an engineering migration is in substance a redistribution of sovereign authority. Moving processing beyond national territory removes technology firms from the reach of the data localisation rules, compliance regimes and tax frameworks that states have spent a decade constructing. For Arab states the challenge is immediate. Having invested heavily in domestic digital infrastructure and imposed strict data residency requirements, they now face the prospect that the server handling their citizens’ data sits five hundred kilometres overhead, beyond the enforcement reach of their courts.   This analysis therefore examines the economics of moving computation into orbit and the limits of its viability; traces the legal gap that allows technology firms to shelter behind the jurisdiction of the state of registry in order to avoid the laws of every other state; assesses the risks of monopolistic concentration and the environmental costs borne collectively; and identifies the regulatory instruments available to Arab states in defence of their digital sovereignty, chief among them the management of radio-frequency spectrum, satellite landing rights and the supervision of ground gateways.

From Dependency to Influence: How the Global South Changed the United Nations’ Map?

8 Sep 2026
The United Nations General Assembly’s resolution on ‘Correct the Map’ extends beyond the technical debate over map projections. It reveals a new arena of symbolic contestation in which countries of the Global South are seeking to renegotiate how the world is represented. The resolution encourages the use of equal-area projections, particularly Equal Earth. It neither prescribes a single map nor alters national borders but confers explicit UN legitimacy on a longstanding African demand: that the continent should not be depicted in education, the media or international institutions in ways that diminish its spatial weight relative to northern regions. Viewed in this light, the vote represents more than a geographical correction. It marks a political breakthrough in ‘visual governance’, where knowledge intersects with power and the image of the world presented to the public becomes a matter for negotiation within the multilateral system.   This initiative comes at a time when countries of the Global South are increasingly able to place questions of identity and representation on the international agenda. The resolution’s adoption demonstrates that soft power operates not only through culture and discourse but also through the standards that shape public knowledge. Changing a map projection will not, in itself, redirect investment or reconfigure supply chains. It does, however, provide a narrative instrument through which countries in Africa, Latin America and South Asia can highlight the scale of their markets, the reach of their corridors and their position within global resource and trade networks. ‘Visual emancipation’ thus offers a means of presenting the South’s geoeconomic weight anew: a framework that helps make its material sources of power more visible and encourages them to be taken more seriously.   Throughout history, maps have been among the most influential instruments of epistemic authority. They serve practical purposes in navigation and administration, while also determining what occupies the centre, what appears at the margins, how borders are drawn and how places are named. Cartography has therefore been inseparable from the state and empire. Maps have been used in surveying, taxation, military campaigns and the delineation of spheres of influence, helping to turn geographical space into a domain that can be administered and controlled. Every map carry, alongside its data, assumptions about purpose, scale, projection and the viewer’s standpoint. Reading a map consequently requires more than asking whether it is accurate. It demands a more political set of questions: accurate for what purpose, who chose this way of depicting the world, and what perceptions does that choice entrench when it becomes a widely accepted standard?   Since the sixteenth century, the Mercator projection has occupied an exceptional position in world cartography. Designed primarily for navigation, it preserves angles and represents constant bearings as straight lines but increasingly exaggerates area towards the poles. The problem lies in its adoption as a general image of the world in classrooms, the media and digital platforms, including settings where comparing areas is the principal objective, rather than in its use for the task for which it was designed. The consequences are particularly clear in the comparison between Africa and Greenland. On many Mercator maps, they appear similar in size, whereas Africa covers approximately 30.37 million square kilometres, nearly fourteen times Greenland’s roughly 2.17 million square kilometres. Repeated across generations, this image does not create political marginalisation on its own but supplies it with a visual language consistent with the North’s centrality in the global imagination.   The Correct the Map resolution, led by Togo on behalf of the African Group and supported by the African Union, brings this objection into an international institutional framework. The General Assembly adopted the text contained in document A/80/L.104 with 164 countries voting in favour, the United States alone voting against, and six abstentions. The political significance of this outcome lies in the breadth of support beyond Africa and the countries traditionally associated with the Global South, encompassing European states and international powers with divergent interests. The resolution is not legally binding and does not affect sovereignty, borders or the legal status of disputed territories. It does, however, call on educational institutions, the media, international organisations and digital platforms to give serious consideration to projections better suited to depicting relative areas. Its principal strength therefore lies in transforming ‘visual justice’ from an African advocacy campaign into an international norm capable of wider adoption.

Most Read

What If: Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz?
Programmes

What If: Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz – a narrow, indispensable artery through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows– stands on a cliff. As geopolitical tensions intensify across the Middle East, fuelled by escalating Iran-Israel tensions and the shadow of direct United States (U.S.) involvement, the once-unthinkable threat of its closure looms larger than ever with Iran’s threat to close or block the Strait. In spite of the catastrophic global implications of such an act, the volatile depths of this potential crisis will be explored, unravelling the motives that could push Iran to choke this global lifeline, exposing the monumental security and geopolitical fallout, and revealing the catastrophic economic shockwave that would consume nations far beyond the region.
The Direct and Indirect Cost of the 2026 US-Israel War on Iran
Programmes
30 Jun 2026

The Direct and Indirect Cost of the 2026 US-Israel War on Iran

The Al Habtoor Research Centre (AHRC) presents a groundbreaking, equation-based assessment analysing the direct and indirect social and economic resource costs of the 110-day conflict that began on February 28, 2026. Utilising an advanced conflict economics framework—including the Stiglitz-Bilmes convention and counterfactual synthetic controls—this research delivers an unprecedented, exclusive analysis of the financial burdens borne by the belligerents and the wider global economy. The headline finding is one of profound asymmetry, proving that recovery capacity, rather than the size of the initial kinetic blow, dictates the medium-term cost of modern warfare. The largest financial burden fell on the global economy, specifically non-belligerent, bystander oil-importing nations, totalling an estimated $1.41 trillion by 2030. Triggered by the 110-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this true burden lies in unproduced global output rather than the temporary oil-price spike, which ultimately nets to zero globally. Among the combatants, Iran absorbed an existential, structural blow equivalent to roughly 81% of its pre-war output, costing $305 billion by 2030, or $720 billion on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis. Locked out of international capital markets, its output gap fails to close by the end of the decade, triggering a step down to a permanently lower economic path. In contrast, the United States faces a heavily back-loaded bill ranging from $200 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2030. While structurally insulated from the immediate oil shock due to its net energy exporter status, this massive range in projections depends on whether standard cash-budgeting or full multi-decade liabilities—such as veteran care, war-debt interest, and budget ratchets—are present-valued. Meanwhile, Israel sustained a sharp but recoverable macroeconomic shock of $135 billion by 2030, equal to roughly a quarter of a single year's GDP. Advanced air defense mitigated physical destruction, concentrating the cost instead on reserve mobilisation, interception economics, and a transient output gap. Ultimately, this exclusive analysis details how the poorest bystander nations subsidised the conflict's macro cost, marking the 2026 war as one of the most economically disruptive events of the century.
The Other Face of the World Cup: How Profits Shape FIFA’s Decisions?
Programmes

The Other Face of the World Cup: How Profits Shape FIFA’s Decisions?

FIFA's commercial success and its governance decisions are not separate stories — they increasingly appear to be the same story. This analysis examines who benefits from the modern World Cup's business model, how FIFA's revenue depends on star players and marquee fixtures, and where that dependency creates entry points for questionable decision-making around eligibility and officiating.   The question matters now because of scale: the 2026 tournament is FIFA's largest and most commercially valuable edition in history, its sponsorship architecture runs through multiple tiers of global brands and downstream club deals, and this year's tournament has already produced disciplinary reversals and officiating controversies that critics have directly linked to the same commercial incentives driving FIFA's revenue.   The analysis draws on FIFA's own financial disclosures, sponsorship data, and contemporaneous tournament reporting, and it deliberately separates documented facts from contested interpretation, particularly where officiating or disciplinary decisions have been framed by media and analysts as raising questions, not as proof of manipulation.
Self-Destruction: Has Israel’s End Begun?
Programmes
9 Jul 2026

Self-Destruction: Has Israel’s End Begun?

The time has come for approaches to analysing Israel's current situation to shift from examining and anticipating the "limits of expansion" to analysing the "indicators of decline". It is no exaggeration to suggest that Israel has activated a process of "self-destruction", with the gravest threat to its continued existence now emerging from within. Yet not every state confronted with an existential crisis necessarily collapses.   Nor does the possession of power necessarily guarantee the ability to endure. History shows that some states begin to erode while still possessing a superior military, a resilient economy, and allies willing to provide support. The decisive turning point comes when the very sources of strength that once underpinned their superiority begin instead to perform the opposite function. Against this backdrop, this analysis does not seek to predict Israel's fate, nor does it proceed from the assumption that its end has become inevitable. Rather, it poses a different question: Have the very foundations that ensured Israel's survival for decades begun to lose their capacity to fulfil the role for which they were originally intended?   Since its establishment, Israel has relied on a set of pillars that formed the foundation of its strategic advantage: international support that afforded it an unprecedented degree of political cover, military superiority that reinforced its deterrent capability, an economy capable of attracting investment and talent, and a society that maintained a minimum level of cohesion despite its internal contradictions. The current landscape, however, suggests that these pillars are no longer moving in the same direction. Instead, they have come under simultaneous pressure that has redefined both their role and the limits of their effectiveness. Deterrence is gradually giving way to attrition; international legitimacy is no longer as robust as it once was; internal divisions are extending beyond political disagreement to encompass questions of identity and the future of the project itself; and the cost of supporting Israel for its allies is rising in ways that were not evident in earlier periods.   This does not mean that Israel stands on the brink of collapse tomorrow. It does, however, raise a question worthy of careful consideration: What happens when the very factors that once generated strength begin instead to produce weakness? And do the current transformations represent a passing crisis, or do they reflect a transition to a new phase in which the very sources of Israel's advantage have themselves become part of the equation of attrition?   To address this question, the analysis does not examine developments as isolated events. Rather, it seeks to explore the interplay between military, political, social, and economic transformations, and how their interaction may reshape the environment that has sustained Israel's continuity over the past decades.
The Implications of China’s Acquisition of a Lithography System
Programmes

The Implications of China’s Acquisition of a Lithography System

December 2025 marked a structural shift in the global technological balance of power, as a state-backed Chinese industrial consortium, coordinated by Huawei, approved the operation of a functional prototype of an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system at a facility in Shenzhen. This announcement dismantles a core assumption that has dominated geopolitical thinking in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo over the past decade, namely that the extreme engineering complexity of EUV technology would permanently confine China behind a technological barrier, preventing it from advancing beyond the 7-nanometre threshold in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing.   Western containment strategies were grounded in a firm conviction that the Dutch firm ASML’s monopoly over highly complex supply chains would guarantee the exclusion of the world’s second-largest economy from producing the advanced semiconductors required for artificial intelligence applications. The new Chinese prototype, however, has invalidated this assumption, not by replicating Western engineering paradigms, but by pursuing an alternative physical and engineering pathway, shaped by imperatives of national sovereignty and enabled by effectively unconstrained state capital.   This prototype, based on laser-driven plasma (LDP) technology, demonstrates that Chinese engineering teams have mastered the core physical principles of optical control at 13.5 nanometres. In doing so, they have moved beyond a phase long framed as one of "scientific impossibility", shifting the contest decisively into a new stage defined by engineering scale-up and operational viability. This development signals the end of an era of unipolar technological dominance. It inaugurates a new phase of dual ecosystems within the semiconductor industry. This transformation will require a comprehensive reassessment of the economic and security assumptions that have governed the sector for decades.

Publications

The Blog

The Promise of Prosperity for All: Deconstructing Elon Musk’s Vision of the Future of AI and Humanity

10 Sep 2026

The Grand Chessboard: A Geopolitical Mastermind Overtaken by History

5 Aug 2026

First to Pay, First to Know: The True Cost of Monetising Presidential Speech under Trump

4 Aug 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei: Dead… or Only Temporarily So?

14 Jul 2026

Vali Nasr and The Shia Revival: A Permanent Ascent, or a Passing Moment?

14 Jul 2026

Self-Destruction: Has Israel’s End Begun?

9 Jul 2026

Multimedia

Press Releases
Our press releases are a critical communication tool to disseminate our research findings, events, and announcements to the media and the public. They serve as a means to inform others about our work, highlight key insights, and provide context and analysis on important issues.
Press Release
Podcasts
Our podcasts provide us with a platform to share our research and insights with a global audience and allows Al Habtoor Research Centre to delve deeper into complex issues and engage in nuanced discussions with experts and stakeholders.
Podcasts
Image Gallery
Our image gallery serves as a visual representation of the Al Habtoor Research Centre’s research, events, and impact. It provides a platform to showcase the think tank’s work and engage with stakeholders through compelling visuals.
Image Gallery
Video Gallery
The video gallery offers a dynamic and engaging way to share the organization’s research, events, and ideas. It allows us to communicate complex concepts and data in an accessible and compelling manner, and to reach a wider audience.
Video Gallery