30 Jul 2025

What If: The Middle East Burn Next?

In 2023 a sobering milestone was met, the highest number of wildfires in the European Union (EU) since tracking began in 2000 by the European Forest Fire Information System. More than 500,000 hectares...
30 Jul 2025

AI’s Crossroads: Decoding the Middle East’s AI Transformation

In a fast-paced world driven by technological advances, the global landscape is being reshaped by the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology that is playing a vital role in bringing ...
29 Jul 2025

Open to All Nationalities

The Al Habtoor Research Centre (AHRC) is expanding its research team. We invite researchers of all nationalities and from all locations to apply. As part of this expansion, we especially encourage app...
23 Jul 2025

Could As-Suwayda Reshape the Calculations of the Syrian Democratic Forces?

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria entered a pivotal political turning point, ushering the country into a new phase. Ahmad al-Sharaa assumed the role of interim pr...
21 Jul 2025

The Gene Line: Synthetic Superiority as Border

In a future where genome editing redefines what it means to be human, the deepest divide is no longer drawn by race, wealth, or class—but by synthetic superiority. Cities are split; assimilation outla...

Programmes

What If: The Middle East Burn Next?

30 Jul 2025
In 2023 a sobering milestone was met, the highest number of wildfires in the European Union (EU) since tracking began in 2000 by the European Forest Fire Information System. More than 500,000 hectares of land were burned, an area equivalent to half the size of Cyprus. The situation worsened in 2024, with wildfire-related fatalities rising sharply to 437, compared to 263 deaths in 2023.   Research consistently points to climate change as a primary driver behind this growing crisis. Not only is it increasing the scale of land burned, but it's also intensifying individual fires, extending fire seasons beyond the traditional summer months, and triggering blazes in regions previously untouched by such disasters. As this escalating threat edges closer to the Middle East, the pressing question remains: will the region be prepared, or caught dangerously off guard?

AI’s Crossroads: Decoding the Middle East’s AI Transformation

30 Jul 2025
In a fast-paced world driven by technological advances, the global landscape is being reshaped by the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology that is playing a vital role in bringing in major economic shifts, unleashing a new era of GDP growth. One of the most active regions concerning AI integration is the Middle East, a region not only observing or keeping up, rather revolutionizing this integration as governments across the region harness the power of AI to reshape their policies, implement national strategies, attract smarter investments while powerfully reconstructing their futures. Such adaptation has already borne fruit, as different economies in the region became more agile and dynamic, systems evolved to operate more efficiently and smarter, resulting in providing better services to their respective populations.   Despite the rapid progress and fast growth of AI in the Middle East, the region still faces a set of challenges, including the lack of properly trained individuals and the constant need of innovative solutions and new ways to narrow this gap. On the other hand, the region lacks legislative framework to regulate the use of AI in a fair and ethical manner. While a growing need for sustainable infrastructure development underlines the fact that more work is still required, overcoming these obstacles and challenges will lead to unlock the region’s full potential, overcome competition and become a major player in the AI world globally.

Could As-Suwayda Reshape the Calculations of the Syrian Democratic Forces?

23 Jul 2025
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, Syria entered a pivotal political turning point, ushering the country into a new phase. Ahmad al-Sharaa assumed the role of interim president, and this transitional period has been defined by intense efforts to restore security and stability, unify the divided armed factions, and address the growing humanitarian needs nationwide. Against this shifting backdrop, the southern governorate of As-Suwayda, home to a Druze majority, emerged as a strategic hot spot of tension. Recent military developments in the region have taken on significant dimensions, potentially impacting the future of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the country's northeast.

Most Read

What If: Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz?
Programmes
19 Jun 2025

What If: Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz – a narrow, indispensable artery through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows– stands on a cliff. As geopolitical tensions intensify across the Middle East, fuelled by escalating Iran-Israel tensions and the shadow of direct United States (U.S.) involvement, the once-unthinkable threat of its closure looms larger than ever with Iran’s threat to close or block the Strait. In spite of the catastrophic global implications of such an act, the volatile depths of this potential crisis will be explored, unravelling the motives that could push Iran to choke this global lifeline, exposing the monumental security and geopolitical fallout, and revealing the catastrophic economic shockwave that would consume nations far beyond the region.
The Erosion of Iranian Deterrence
Programmes
15 Jun 2025

The Erosion of Iranian Deterrence

Between June 13 and 14, 2025, Israel executed one of the most daring and sophisticated military operations in its contemporary history: a multi-pronged aerial strike that penetrated deep into Iranian sovereign territory in an unprecedented fashion. The offensive targeted critical nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities, alongside additional military installations near Isfahan. Furthermore, the operation struck key airbases integral to Iran’s air defence network, most notably Hamadan and Tabriz airfields. In parallel, Israeli forces targeted senior leadership within both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the conventional military, with subsequent intelligence assessments confirming direct hits and casualties among Iran’s high command.   Iran's response, though swift, bore the hallmarks of operational improvisation. Seeking to reassert deterrence and project resilience, Tehran launched over one hundred unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the same day, primarily of the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 variants. These drones traversed approximately 2,000 kilometres through Iraqi and Syrian airspace. However, the majority failed to reach Israeli territory. Instead, they were intercepted by a multi-layered defensive network composed of Jordanian, Saudi, and Israeli air defence systems, all heavily supported by U.S. early-warning and tracking technologies. A large number were neutralized over Iraq’s Anbar province and the deserts of Jordan, while others were downed over northern Saudi Arabia.   On June 14, Iran escalated by launching its principal retaliatory strike in the form of a large-scale, coordinated ballistic missile attack. Over 150 ballistic missiles were deployed, prominently including Ghadr-110 (with a range of up to 3,000 km), Khorramshahr, and Sejjil-2—among the most advanced systems in Iran’s medium-range missile arsenal. These missiles targeted multiple sites deep inside Israeli territory. A notable strike occurred near Israel’s Ministry of Defence compound in the Kirya complex in central Tel Aviv, where one missile reportedly caused structural damage and minor injuries, though no fatalities among military personnel were confirmed. Additional missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Rishon LeZion, injuring several individuals—one critically—with the majority suffering only mild to moderate wounds.   Despite the magnitude of the missile barrage, the strategic yield fell significantly short of Tehran’s expectations. This underperformance prompted Iranian authorities to broaden the scope of their confrontation, issuing explicit warnings that U.S. military assets across the region—particularly in the Gulf—would henceforth be considered legitimate targets. These threats referenced high-value installations such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and U.S. military positions in Iraq, including Ain al-Asad and Camp Victoria in Baghdad, as well as naval facilities in Bahrain.   From Iran’s strategic vantage point, any U.S. involvement—especially in reinforcing Israeli air defences—constitutes direct participation in the hostilities. This rationale is now used to justify Tehran’s threats to strike American military positions across the Gulf. The implications of this shift are profound: for the first time since 2020, the prospect of open military confrontation in the Persian Gulf has become a credible geopolitical scenario. The regional deterrence equation, long balanced on latent threat and calculated ambiguity, has now entered a phase of dangerous volatility.   This analysis seeks to offer a comprehensive examination of the strategic motivations underpinning Iran’s threats to target U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. By synthesizing operational data—namely, Iran’s patterns of ballistic missile and drone deployment—with broader structural dynamics of regional and international power distribution, to elucidate the strategic logic through which American military installations in the Gulf emerge as priority targets within Iran’s evolving deterrence doctrine.
What If: Iran Attacked the Dimona Reactor?
Programmes
22 Jun 2025

What If: Iran Attacked the Dimona Reactor?

Amid the intensifying confrontation between Iran and Israel throughout 2025, the prospect of a direct strike against Israel’s Dimona nuclear facility has moved from a remote possibility to a plausible escalation scenario. As military operations increasingly target strategic infrastructure on both sides, the regional system faces the risk of a threshold breach—one that could trigger not only military and political consequences but also a multidimensional crisis involving radioactive contamination, mass displacement, and economic collapse across multiple states.   While Israel would undoubtedly bear the immediate brunt—facing mass civilian evacuations, irreversible environmental degradation in the Negev, and the paralysis of its agricultural and tourism sectors—the ripple effects would extend far beyond its borders.   Jordan’s border regions and agricultural zones in the Jordan Valley could face contamination and humanitarian strain, potentially requiring the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and northern Suez region could suffer fallout exposure, disrupting global shipping through the canal and threatening the Red Sea tourism corridor. Saudi Arabia’s northern provinces, including areas tied to its Vision 2030 megaprojects, could face both environmental and demographic disruption.
Why Did Iran Fail to Repel Operation Rising Lion?
Programmes
15 Jun 2025

Why Did Iran Fail to Repel Operation Rising Lion?

Operation Rising Lion, executed by Israel on June 13, 2025, constituted a lightning strike aimed at crippling the very core of Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterised this pre-emptive operation as a necessary measure to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival," drawing upon the Begin Doctrine previously brought to bear in analogous strikes against Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. The operation's objectives were marked by strategic multiplicity and diversity, encompassing the targeting of numerous nuclear facilities, alongside senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists, in an endeavour to inflict maximum damage upon Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. Israel's intent was not merely confined to disrupting the nuclear program; it extended to undermining Iran's capacity to mount retaliatory assaults and to fend off future waves of Israeli attacks.   The timing of the Israeli operation came on the heels of a meticulous assessment by the Israeli leadership, which had concluded that Iran was on the cusp of achieving a dangerous breakthrough in its pursuit of nuclear weaponry, thereby necessitating the exploitation of a narrow temporal window before Iranian nuclear facilities became either too advanced or too robustly protected. In this context, this analysis aims to delve into the rationale underpinning the operation, to account for Tehran's apparent failure to parry the assault effectively, and to examine the attack's repercussions on Iran's domestic landscape. Furthermore, it seeks to investigate the potential pathways Iran might pursue to reconstitute its deterrent capability.

Publications

The Blog

Open to All Nationalities

29 Jul 2025

Trump’s Control Over His Party Falters

2 Jul 2025

Containment to Confrontation: US Intervention in Iran

23 Jun 2025

Will the Houthis Intervene?

23 Jun 2025

Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

14 Jun 2025

A Turning Point in Gaza: Allies’ Ultimatum May Shift the Calculus

25 May 2025

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East

30 Apr 2025

Canada’s Elections in the Shadow of Trump

29 Apr 2025

Early Warning Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Political Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Lebanon: A Pattern of Escalation in the Middle East

23 Mar 2025

Emergency Arab Summit: The End of Gaza’s Suffering?

25 Feb 2025

Lebanon’s Golden Opportunity: A New Era with General Joseph Aoun

15 Jan 2025

HMPV: Political Weapon or Health Threat?

8 Jan 2025

What is Next for Syria?

10 Dec 2024

Dubai Future Forum, 2024

24 Nov 2024

A New US President… A New Middle East!

10 Nov 2024

The UAE’s Vision for Peace in the Region

24 Sep 2024

Restoring Lost Deterrence: Pager Explosions in Lebanon

18 Sep 2024

Al Karamah Crossing Incident: Individual Act or Growing Resistance?

11 Sep 2024

Political Consequences of Germany’s Local Election

3 Sep 2024

Will Germany’s Political Shift Alter Europe’s Stance on Ukraine?

3 Sep 2024

The Economic Ramifications of Israel’s Pre-emptive Strikes on Hezbollah

25 Aug 2024

What is Happening in Britain?

8 Aug 2024

The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Implications for the Region

31 Jul 2024

The Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump

15 Jul 2024

BRICSPHONE: A Cultural Call to Unity to End Western Hegemony

8 Jul 2024

How Can New Think Tanks Navigate & Thrive in Changing Landscapes?

1 Jul 2024

BRICS Experts Forum 2024 “The Role of the BRICS in the Search for a New World Order”

26 Jun 2024

Security and Stability in the Mediterranean in Athens, Greece 2024

13 Jun 2024

What’s Next for Iran?

20 May 2024

Global Navigation Systems and Houthi Missiles

19 Feb 2024

Taiwan’s Elections: What Does it Bring for the World?

14 Jan 2024

Israel and the ICJ: Resuscitating Global Order

11 Jan 2024

Scrolling Through Their Childhood: Social Media’s Deep Impact on Coming Generations

20 Nov 2023

Multimedia

Press Releases
Our press releases are a critical communication tool to disseminate our research findings, events, and announcements to the media and the public. They serve as a means to inform others about our work, highlight key insights, and provide context and analysis on important issues.
Press Release
Podcasts
Our podcasts provide us with a platform to share our research and insights with a global audience and allows Al Habtoor Research Centre to delve deeper into complex issues and engage in nuanced discussions with experts and stakeholders.
Podcasts
Image Gallery
Our image gallery serves as a visual representation of the Al Habtoor Research Centre’s research, events, and impact. It provides a platform to showcase the think tank’s work and engage with stakeholders through compelling visuals.
Image Gallery
Video Gallery
The video gallery offers a dynamic and engaging way to share the organization’s research, events, and ideas. It allows us to communicate complex concepts and data in an accessible and compelling manner, and to reach a wider audience.
Video Gallery